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刘鹤在世界经济论坛2023年年会上的特别致辞(下)

发布日期:2023-05-08      阅读数:173 次

房地产业是中国国民经济的支柱产业。与房地产相关的贷款占银行信贷的比重接近40%,房地产业相关收入占地方综合财力的50%,房地产占城镇居民资产的60%。2021年下半年以来,中国房地产市场出现价格和销售急剧下降现象,房地产企业普遍出现流动性不畅、资产负债表恶化,个别头部企业面临重大风险。我们认为,房地产领域风险如果处置不当,很容易引发系统性风险,必须及时干预,但要注意处理好系统性风险和道德风险的关系。第一,通过保护契约和产权,稳定预期。针对涉及全国188万居民的2600多个已付款未交付项目,我们从“保交楼”入手,使市场避免恐慌。第二,大量输血,改善房地产企业的流动性,主要包括商业银行提供贷款、为房企发债提供担保、促进股权融资等。第三,放松在房地产市场过热期间采取的管制措施,扩大有效需求,使房地产公司具备造血功能。通过这些努力,市场供求关系开始明显改善。从未来看,中国仍处于城市化较快发展阶段,巨大的需求潜力将为房地产业发展提供有力支撑。

Real estate sector is still a pillar for China’s economy. It accounts for nearly 40 percent of bank lending, 50 percent of overall local government fiscal resources, and 60 percent of urban household assets. From the second half of 2021, China experienced a rapid decline in property prices and home sales. Many property developers suffered from liquidity shortage and deteriorating balance sheet. The risks of a handful of leading property developers are particularly noticeable.

If not handled properly, risks in the housing sector are likely to trigger systemic risks. That is why prompt steps must be taken to address them. That said, however, we should also prevent possible moral hazards while doing so. Here is what we have done.

First, we have stabilized expectations by honoring contracts and protecting property rights. For the 2,600-plus pre-sold but unfinished housing projects that concern 1.88 million people across the country, we have made ensuring their delivery a priority, and this helped prevent panic in the market.

Second, we have conducted massive “blood transfusion” to the real estate sector. The liquidity situation of real estate companies has been greatly enhanced by way of fresh bank lending, bond issuance guarantee, and equity financing.

Third, we have helped the real estate sector with “blood formation”. We have relaxed restrictions that were once introduced to address the overheating in the property market. Such adjustment has expanded effective demand and enabled property developers to generate revenue.

Thanks to these efforts, the supply and demand in the market has seen noticeable improvement. Looking ahead, China’s urbanization is still on a fast track, and the enormous potential demand generated in this process will provide a strong underpinning for the development of the real estate sector.

当前,中国正在加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。国内循环重点是扩大内需,完善产业体系,形成以消费拉动为主的增长模式,推动经济实现再平衡。这个逻辑是2008年以来的国际共识。顺畅的国内循环需要加强国际分工和合作,扩大对外贸易和利用外资。新发展格局是开放的国内国际双循环。中国的基本国情决定了必须对外开放,不断提高对外开放质量和水平,我们反对单边主义、保护主义,希望全面加强国际合作,共同维护世界经济稳定和发展,推动经济再全球化。

Right now, China is stepping up efforts to foster a new development paradigm with domestic circulation as the mainstay and domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other. The focus of domestic circulation is on expanding internal demand, promoting industrial upgrade, developing a consumption-led growth model, and re-balancing the economy. (This is a logic reflecting international consensus since 2008.)

However, for domestic circulation to function well, it must rely on international division of labor and cooperation, as well as more foreign trade and investment. Therefore, the new development paradigm of dual-circulation is to be pursued in an open economy.

China’s national reality dictates that opening up to the world is a must, not an expediency. We must open up wider and make it work better. We oppose unilateralism and protectionism, and look forward to strengthening international cooperation with all countries for world economic stability and development, and the promotion of economic re-globalization.

中国已经全面建成小康社会,实现共同富裕是我们提出的重要社会发展目标,也是实现中国长治久安的历史性任务。这是一项长远任务,需要逐步实现,不可能一蹴而就。我们讲的共同富裕,强调的是避免两极分化,最终还是要靠共同发展,靠每个人的艰苦奋斗和勤劳致富,绝不是搞平均主义和福利主义。随着中国发展,全体国民富裕程度将不断提高,但任何情况下人们的收入水平、富裕程度都将存在一定差异。也就是说,在机会面前人人平等,但结果还是不一样的。在推动共同富裕的历史过程中,包括外商在内的企业家都将发挥发动机的重要作用,因为他们是社会财富创造的关键要素,如果没有财富的逐步积累,共同富裕就成了无源之水、无本之木。

Now that China has completed the mission of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, we have come up with a new social development goal of achieving common prosperity, a historical mission that will help us ensure lasting stability. It is a long-term task that requires an incremental and gradual approach. It is not something to be achieved overnight.

Common prosperity, as we see it, is aimed at preventing polarization. It can only be attained through common development and the hard work of every Chinese. Common prosperity is by no means a synonym of egalitarianism or welfarism. As China grows, all Chinese people will be better off, but that doesn’t mean their incomes and level of prosperity have to be the same. (That is to say, there will be equal opportunities, but no guarantee of equal outcomes)

Entrepreneurship is a key factor for wealth creation of a society. Therefore, entrepreneurs, both Chinese and foreign, will play an important role as the engine driving China’s historical pursuit of common prosperity. If wealth doesn’t grow, common prosperity will become a river without source or a tree without roots.
女士们,先生们,朋友们:

Ladies and Gentlemen, 
Friends,

“在分裂的世界中加强合作”,这个主题有很强的现实针对性。习近平主席指出,当前,世界之变、时代之变、历史之变正以前所未有的方式展开,世界又一次站在历史的十字路口,何去何从取决于各国人民的选择。

The theme of this meeting, “Cooperation in a Fragmented World”, is highly relevant. As President Xi Jinping noted, changes of our world, of our times, and of history are unfolding in front of us in unprecedented ways. The world has once again come at a historical crossroad, and its future hinges on the choices we make.

关于如何解决世界合作问题,我想提出三点观察。

As for how to advance international cooperation, I would like to share with you the following three observations.

第一,坚持正确的原则,维护有效的国际经济秩序。面对新形势,传统的思维方式无法提供出路,我们必须放弃冷战思维,从物质二相性的角度认识事物的本质。着眼于建立人类命运共同体,携手应对全球性挑战。我们认为,合理的国际经济秩序必须共同维护,关于合理分工、鼓励竞争、反对垄断、保护产权和知识产权、弘扬企业家精神、促进要素自由流动、坚持公平分配、完善社会安全网、维护宏观经济稳定等经济原理没有改变,政府应该在重大问题上发挥作用,面对暂时出现的阻力和倒退,我们应当勇于坚持真理,尊重规律,用务实朴素的办法解决复杂的问题。

First, we need to uphold the right principles and maintain the effective international economic order. Under the new circumstances, the traditional way of thinking cannot provide the solution. That is why we have to abandon the cold war mentality, try to understand the nature of things from the perspective of material duality, endeavor to build a community with a shared future for mankind, and join hands to respond to global challenges. We believe that an equitable international economic order must be preserved by all. Equitable division of labor, encouragement of competition, anti-monopoly, protection of property rights and IPRs, promoting entrepreneurship and free flow of production factors, fair distribution, a strong social safety net, and ensuring macroeconomic stability are the well-proven economic principles that are still relevant today. Government has a key role to play on major issues, despite temporary resistance and some setbacks, we must have the courage to uphold truth and law of economics, and address complex issues pragmatically with plain and simple solutions.

第二,加强国际宏观政策协调,平衡好治理通胀和稳定增长的关系。目前一些国家采取的应对思路是“通胀—加息—衰退—复苏”。需要注意的是,本轮通胀是复合型通胀,成因复杂,除了需求侧因素外,应当供需两端同时发力,同步修复产业链供应链,高度重视能源安全、粮食安全,这就必须推动国际合作,维护和平,合力应对共同性挑战。我们呼吁,大国在加息的同时,应高度重视此举对新兴市场国家和发展中国家产生的负面外溢性,防止加重债务和金融风险。我们也同意与各方一道,推动解决一些发展中国家的债务问题。

Second, we need to strengthen international macro policy coordination and strike a good balance between inflation and growth. To tame inflation, some countries have chosen the policy that will likely result in the hike-recession-recovery loop. But it is important to note that inflation this time around is driven by multiple factors. Apart from the demand side, supply-side measures are also needed to repair the supply chains and preserve energy and food security.

A joint response to this challenge requires international cooperation and maintenance of peace. We call for more attention to the negative spillover effect of major countries’ rate hikes on the emerging markets and developing countries so as not to add to more debt or financial risks. We stand ready to work with all parties to find solutions to the debt issues of some developing countries.

第三,积极应对全球气候变化。世界上多数国家都已认识到气候治理的紧迫性,需要采取共同行动。新冠病毒流行发生以后,我们认识到气候变化和公共卫生危机存在着某种关联,在这个问题上需要开展有效的国际合作。我们将坚守对国际社会做出的承诺,积极推动气候变化领域国际合作,共同有效应对气候变化带来的诸多严峻挑战,推动构建人类命运共同体。

Third, we need a global response to climate change. Most countries in the world are keenly aware of the urgency of climate governance and the need for common actions. COVID-19 has revealed to us a possible connection between climate change and public health crisis. This is an area where effective international cooperation is needed.

China will honor its commitments to the international community, push for global cooperation on climate change, and work with other countries to tackle the serious challenges posed by climate change, and build a community with a shared future for mankind.

在分裂的世界中加强合作,是我们面临的现实问题,应当坦诚面对分裂现状,深入分析其原因,提倡正和博弈,找到有可能扩大合作的共同点,探求扩大合作的有效机制,坚定维护世界和平。非常感谢这次达沃斯论坛为我们提供了这样一个机会,我由衷祝愿本次论坛圆满成功,为推进分裂世界中的国际和平和国际合作作出贡献。

How to strengthen cooperation in a fragmented world is a real problem we all face. We must dig deep into the causes of fragmentation, promote positive-sum games, identify the possible converging areas of cooperation, and explore the mechanisms for doing so. We must work together to firmly safeguard world peace. We should be grateful that this year’s Davos Forum presents us with an opportunity to do just that. I wish the Forum a full success, and hopefully, it can help us strengthen cooperation and preserve peace in a fragmented world.

谢谢大家的倾听。谢谢大家。

Thank you for your attention. Thank you. 

来源:新华网 日期:2023年1月19日

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